I'm trying to avoid studying for a test, so here's some fun with economic stats:
Saskatoon population: 220000 est. (Wikipedia)
Saskatoon Population growth rate: 2.5% (www.sreda.com)
Canada's 2006 economic growth rate, minus it's population growth rate: ~2%* (CIA factbook)
Canada's 2006 per Capita income: 35,200 (Ibid)
Estimated cost of a Mars trip: One Trillion dollars (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)
So: Calculated** year when Saskatoon can afford it's own Mars shot with one year's budget:
2114.
* This has to be done because population growth is a component of net growth rates. The adjusted rate is Canada's growth due to increases in labour productivity.
**Calculation used:
# of years until trip is affordable = ln(Trip cost/[current population size*current per capita income])/(economic growth rate + population growth rate)
Also: for those who don't want to wait on Saskatoon city council to decide to go to Mars, you personally will have the yearly income to do it around 2864.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
3 comments:
The only problem I can see is this fails to take into effect the change in cost of supplies to send some one to Mars... basically what you have is the year Saskatoon can send a 2005 rocket to Mars not a 2114.
There's a great deal of factors I didn't take into account for this... this was just me playing with numbers.
Actually, if there was a massive boom in space travel demand, I would expect to see both a drop and price and an increase in quality, similar to how an individual can now buy a computer with a month or two's income, which has more power than every computer combined 50 years ago. So, depending on how demand for space travel changes, we could be looking at substantially cheaper space travel than this in a hundred years.
You crack head.
Post a Comment